Saturday 22 January 2011

Aston Villa Preview

A game that epitomizes our recent fast track to success. Two years ago it was a three horse race for the European spots, Spurs, Villa and ourselves, playing at a similar level with very little separating each. Two seasons on and the progress and stature of the clubs has become discrepant. The long term plans devised by the ADUG have seen substantial investment in our club and the acquisition of so many quality players have seen us excel above today's opposition.

Villa, on the other hand, have taken a few steps backwards. From a team that looked so strong and dominant, with a great mix of pace and skill, have deteriorated into a dysfunctional unit with a squad predominantly made up of young talent yet to fulfill their potential. I believe City's recent ventures have directly effected this with the acquisition (and therefore Villa's loss) of James Milner. Milner was the glue in the Villa team that seemed to bring everything together and since his departure there his been a distinct lack of leadership and drive.

Villa however, will be rejuvenated by the recent statement signing of Darren Bent who is set to make his debut today. By any standards, even at £18m; Bent is a great signing for Villa and a proven goalscorer wherever he has played. Having already scored one against us this season, in the away defeat at Sunderland, the City defence will certainly have to be aware of his potent mix of power, pace and acute finishing.

We go into tonight's game looking to continue our impressive away from which has seen us lose only two away games this season (one courtesy of Darren Bent's late goal away at Sunderland). the home fixture against Villa was our biggest win of the season, scoring four without conceding.

Roberto Mancini's team selection will be interesting and with most of our senior players not fit (bar Balotelli) could provide an insight of who he considers his strongest team. After recently finding his feet and starting to settle in the league, Kolarov should start at left-back. Despite Micah Richards return to fitness, Zabaleta's recent form should be enough to guarantee him a start at right-back. Vincent Kompany as always will be the first name on the team sheet and should be partnered by Kolo Toure in a bid to capture their early season solidity. Kolo Toure's availability was a huge relief as the heavy footed clumsiness of Joleon Lescott playing against the nimble Albrighton and Young had an inevitability of a penalty.

We should stick with the usual spine of Yaya, De Jong and the un-sung Gareth Barry. Returning to his former club today I see Gareth Barry's role in our sophisticated system as one of the most crucial. With the absence of  a true left winger, there is an expectancy surrounding Kolarov to get forward from the left-back position and supply the width. With Barry sitting in midfield, primarily to the left of De-Jong he is constantly asked to sit in for Kolorav and provide the cover, which he does so more than adequately. Another key part to Barry's game is his quick distribution. Always providing on option in midfield he is constantly available for the pass and by the standards of the premiership he rarely gives the ball away.

A big call for Mancini is which one of the four attackers he drops to the bench. With Tevez a certain starter and Mancini implying that Dzeko will start, it is down to one of either Johnson or Silva. My prediction is that Johnson will drop to the bench. With David Silva on the pitch we look a much more functional, fluent team. His interchange of positions with the midfield and the other two acking players seems to create more space than ever seemed possible.  If we stick to our usual tactic of dominating posession then Silva is the obvious choice. This also provides the option of introducing Johnson later on to provide the extra direct threat, given the torrid time he gave Stephen Warnock in the home tie I can see this being an effective late tactic if neccessary.

With Tevez dropping slightly deeper and linking up with Silva I think we will create quite a few chances today. We will be looking to keep hold of the ball and see some early signs of the link up play and the relationships to be established amongst our front three. With Aston villa playing two very attacking wingers in downing and Albrighton, our full backs will be looking to get forward and exploit the space left by them. Zabaleta's attacking play has improved a lot during his latest run in the team and his link up play with Tevez has provided an extra threat.

A lot of the build up to this game has surrounded 'Dzeko v Bent', I am looking forward to seeing Dzeko more and more and i think as he finds his fitness he will be a delight to watch.

Prediction - Aston Villa 1 - 2 City - The last few games I have predicted clean sheets to no avail, until our defence find the sort of form we did early in the season we will always be susceptible to balls into the box and especially set pieces. Despite the big 'Dzeko v Bent' ordeal, I think it will be the old guard who seal the win. Tevez for two.

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