I have been looking forward to this game to rectify the disappointment in the corresponding home fixture earlier this season, like that game, I had previously identified this as a thorough examination and a representation of exactly how far we have come in the Mancini era. With similarity to Boyata's early red card in the home fixture; the news of David Silva's absence has dealt a substantial blow to City and in my belief has changed to whole capacity of the game. Disappointingly, considering Silva's absence, I believe that this will once again, not be a true reflection of the progress City have made. I know this is a bold statement but that's how influential I believe the little Spaniard to be.
I think Mancini's initial plan would have seen us adopt the same approach that has seen much success in recent away games, possession football, patiently waiting for the opening. without Silva's touch and intelligence we will be relying on Barry, De Jong and Yaya to keep the ball moving and dragging the Arsenal midfield - crucially Alex Song, out of position. Without our little maestro I can see us setting up to absorb as much pressure as possible and hit them on the break.
I think the team has pretty much picked itself, with a few exceptions. I would like to see Zabaleta come in at LB, the thought of Theo Walcott running at Alex Kolarov is enough to make any City fan sweat. Zaba will provide the typical performance us fans are accustomed to, strong, hearty and although lacking that pace, opponents generally find it difficult to initially turn and run at him. The injury to Balotelli should see Milner return to occupy the left hand side, his work rate helping Pablo out against Walcott/Nasri and his intelligence should help us keep the ball.
With the fitness of Kolo Toure uncertain, I expect Joleon Lescott to partner Kompany at the back. If he is given the chance to impress Mancini his distribution must improve from the standards he has set this season. I mentioned in my post after the Blackpool game that I would like to see Richards play at right-back. I have however seen Micah terrorised by small, quick, intelligent players once to often and I think Mancini's sentiments echo this and he is fully aware of Micah's positional incompetence's. I expect Boateng to keep his spot and I know this is one game in which many City fans will forgive his lack of adventure.
Another almost certain to start is Adam Johnson, a big game for him which has come at the perfect time given his recent form. My main concern over AJ, particularly in big games is that in order to make him effective he needs to be running at his man, regardless of his obvious natural talent, this is a strategy that's only ever going to have a certain success rate, making it likely that on occasions he loses the ball - something that can be rarely afforded against the likes of Arsenal.
With Johnson naturally keeping the width and Milner acting enforcer, a lot of the creative omen lies with Yaya Toure, not quite the delicate nimble footed creativity of others who can play in this role, but the direct powerful running that we have seen to be very effective as his fitness has improved over recent weeks.
All in all I think if Barry and De Jong can get a grip of the midfield and we get the right players in the right areas I think we have a right to be optimistic (the thought of Tevez, Yaya and AJ running at Squillaci and Koscielny is delightful), although against Arsenal, that's much easier said than done.
(Optimistic) Prediction - Arsenal 1 - 2 City Arsenal will certainly see this as a must win game, I think their desire to get forward will leave gaps that we can exploit, despite the possible lack of fluent creation. Their lack of aerial dominance could leave them exposed to set pieces via the likes of Lescott, Kompany and co.
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